Theories on population growth

Q. Discuss the social and economic theories of population growth.(60/08). Q. Examine theories about population control and explain the relative merits of these theories in limiting population growth.(60/95) Q. Write short note on demographic transition.(20/86)

Malthus Theory

Malthus is the earliest propounder of the demographic theory. He was a humanitarian and economist who wanted to warn the European society from a possible food crisis which may occur if population growth disproportionately to the carrying capacity of the food

POSTULATES

• Man has two Basic Instinct

1. Passion for food because it is basic Instinct for survival, growth and longevity.
2. Passion for sex which is Basic Instinct for propagation

• Food production grows with arithmetic rate while  population grows with geometrical rate. Thus,food crisis Grows with time.
• After 200 years the ratio between food and population would grow so low  that great human catastrophe could occur and the economy and social condition will be brought back to the primitive level.
• Suggested  9: 256(food:population) as the critical ratio  beyond which the disaster is eminent.
• Disaster like famine,earthquake,civil war,etc would serve as check to this population growth
• Preventive measures:

1. Ethical : Celibacy, delay in marriage,use of contraceptives,etc.
2. Vices : Prostitution,Adultery,etc

• Supported capitalistic mode of economy because for economic growth surplus money or capital is required for investment is
• capitalistic economy is good..Suggested that fast population growth is  characteristic of capitalist society where the working class has higher fertility rate. To control the population better wage rates and incentives must be provided to the labour class.

CRITICISM

• Too Pessimistic.
• Two predictive in nature. Ex- Catastrophe after 200 years.
• Underestimation of technological progress of man.
• Assumption that in every 25 years the population double itself this is not true for all the countries. Countries like Bangladesh double their population in 17 years and some countries have so huge population base this that it takes more than hundred years to double its population example-India.
• Arithmetic rate and geometric rate do not conform to the present economic development and population growth pattern. Every country has its own demographic pattern and fertility rates are controlled by socioeconomic factors.
• Passion for sex can’t be equated with passion for child.

Marx Theory

Karl Marx theory is called socialistic theory.It was not an independent theory on population but a reaction to Malthus.He also talked about population explosion in the future.

POSTULATES

• population growth is based in  class differentiation in the society which is the product of mode of economy.
• Karl Marx believe that the population growth take place in the proletariat because they believe that greater the number of hands more the wages earn.
• Capitalists or bourgeoisie  for the sake of high standards of Living and fear of division of property keep family small.
• If capitalism is replaced by socialism population we can be controlled.
• Karl Marx rejects the preventive check suggested by Malthus and suggested upliftment in the living standards and equal society as the Panacea for the population control

DIFFERENCE MALTHUS AND MARX

1. Malthus theory is naturalistic theory where population control is automatic but Marxist theory is socialistic where population control is through social changes
2. Malthus supported capitalistic mode of economy because economic growth can be sustained only through capital investment Karl Marx supported socialist mode of economy where distributive justice is through the state

Demographic transition theory

This theory was proposed by Thompson-Notestein. This model is based on European experience of demographic history.It is non spatial temporal model with inductive approach

This model relates socio-economic change to the demographic transition in a society.

STAGES

1.High stationary stage

• Population growth rate is stagnant or very low because both birth rate and death rate is very high. death rate is more than 35/1000  and birth rate is more than 35/1000.
• Society is traditional, economy is agrarian and settlement is rule.
• Characteristic of underdeveloped country.

2. Early  expansion stage

• Mortality rate fall to 20 but fertility rate remains higher than 35. Population growth is high
• Characteristic of developing countries where rapid economic development is taking place .

3.Late expanding stage

• Mortality rate falls to 10-15/1000. Fertility rate also comes down to 20. Population still grows but the rate of growth is declining.
• Similar to late Industrial Revolution stage in Europe.

4.Low stationary phase

• Population growth becomes stagnant or very low because both birth rate and death rate are low 10/1000.
• Characteristics of developed country.

5. Stage of declining population

• This phase was not allowed by original  theory but it is observed in highly developed Nations
• Birth rate further fall down below 10. Ex- Austria,Germany, Japan.

EVALUATION

• Given sequence of stages not  followed everywhere.
• Few countries in West Asia have economic setup of stage 5 but social setup of stage1
• Many countries have economic activities like agriculture but social condition is similar to stage 4 .Ex-Australia, New Zealand
• This model is more applicable in Europe.
• African countries in particular don't conform to the model.
• This model is in complete opposition to the population trend in larger countries like India China Brazil etc. All of these countries have their own demographic history.